Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
